Thermal comfort prediction of the existing housing stock in southern Spain through calibrated and validated parameterized simulation models

• Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian approaches are used for model calibration. The building stock performance is predicted through a hybrid bottom-up method. Predicted average annual discomfort hours H-typology in southern Spain 68%. most influential modelling parameters on thermal comfort obtained. 10 Latin Hypercube Samples per parameterized variable report solid results. Due to 2030 2050 targets of the latest international standards, energetically retrofitting existing sector requires special attention. Prior proposal retrofit strategies, it necessary analyse current energy stock. Although simulation tools provide accurate results at level, individual assessments large-scale lead extensive data collection huge computational resources. This paper assesses one representative typologies social housing Spain, H-typology, predicting indoor level. physical, constructive geometrical characterisation selection calibrated validated case study monitoring generate models, providing statistically samples Open-access have been combined with statistical software. Conclusions reported show around 68%, higher percentage undercooling hours, identify as infiltration rate, people density night-time natural ventilation rate. Moreover, derived highly thermally analysing